As we look forward into 2010, I see the pace of change for the legal world accelerating driven by the economy, technological improvements and lawyers becoming more entrepreneurial in response. The list below may sound very self-serving, but in reality it explains exactly why we’re doing what we’re doing. Innovation can be particularly daunting for risk-averse, issue-spotting lawyers, so strap yourself in, put on your helmet and get ready for a roller coaster in the next 12 months.
1. Growth in Some Consumer-specific Sectors – Trend data from Avvo show the economy has caused major growth in specific legal practice areas, including Bankruptcy, Foreclosure, Real Estate and even Divorce. Anecdotaly, I have talked to many attorneys in these areas reporting record years.
2. Growth in Solo Ranks – 2009 saw the worst ever employment year for BigLaw which culled ranks at a rate of 4.5%. Cuts were widespread and deep – seven of the largest 50 law firms let more than 200 attorneys go. Following guidance from solo practioner fairy godmother, Carolyn Elefant, many enterprising laid off attorneys have struck out on their own. Expect this growth in the solo community to continue as lay-offs trend into 2010.
3. Price for Online Products Drops – The number of lawyers paying thousands of dollars annually for basic online products like blogs, websites and directory listings will drop precipitously. Cost conscious attorneys will continue to seek alternatives to the dominant industry vendors who have overcharged lawyers for rudimentary solutions over the past decade. Additionally, the ranks of do-it-yourself lawyers embracing easy-to-use (and often free) platforms will increase.
4. Price for Marketing Consulting Services Drops – 2009 saw an explosion of self-proclaimed social media gurus, mavens, masters, ninjas, and experts providing Social Media Strategy Consultation. These ranks will swell in 2010 as more laid off and bar-sanctioned attorneys turn to a career in marketing consulting. However, the fabricated mystery of social media will disappear as attorneys discover a twitter account can be set up in 10 minutes by anyone who finished 3 years of law school. Supply soars, demand craters are price falls to the basement. (Those with congenital social issues may still require a consultant to let them know that online social interaction can be just as challenging as in-person interaction.)
5. Personalized Search Strengthens Large Entrenched Sites – Google recently made a massive shift to search that seems to have gone almost unnoticed by the legal community – personalized search results as a default setting. This means that searches are influenced by the individual searcher – and one of the parameters considered in rankings is previous browsing history. For example, if I’ve visited Nike 4 times this month, that site is more likely to rank higher when I do a search for “sneaker”. The result? Established sites and strong brands will get even more representation in the search results. A side note – SEO’s will respond by experimenting to see if PPC advertising can be used to influence natural search placement.
6. Bar Regulation Catches Up To the Web – Ludicrous ethical requirements enacted this December by the Florida Bar will be challenged and overturned in a very public and expensive process. This will serve as a wake-up call to all state bars regarding how they deal with the Internet. South Carolina will quietly consider how the Constitution applies to their regulations regarding a “hypothetical company X” where lawyers can claim and manage their online profiles.
7. Major SPAM Scandal – In 2008 we had the Findlaw linkselling scandal, in 2009 we had the Lawyers.com comment SPAM scandal. 2010 will be no different as more and more consultants, agencies and attorneys get involved in the online marketing gold-rush. Someone is going to push the ethical limits and get burned. Unfortunately, the ultimate loser may be those attorneys who unwittingly (through sheer ignorance) get swept up in it.
8. Yellow Pages Advertising Continues to Crater – when we researched the concept for Avvo, lawyers were spending $1.4 billion annually on yellow pages advertising. Last year (2008), that dropped to $1 billion. 2009 saw RR Donnelley (the largest Yellow Pages provider) stock hit rock bottom – 88% off its high just two years earlier. As attorneys approach advertising with a more analytical eye, they will continue to pull back from this channel.
